Sunday, January 26, 2014

Part Three: First Look At The Draft

In part three of this off-season series, I wanted to take an early look at the draft.

Instead of a boring position rankings list that will drastically change between today and May, I wanted to talk about ten players who would be very interesting, and exciting, fits in Philadelphia.

These aren't just top-tier talent, I wanted to look at players with current mid-round (even late-round) grades too.

1. ILB Christian Jones (6-4, 234lbs) 

DeMeco Ryans is a great leader, but he's in the decline of his career. Pairing another play-maker with Mychal Kendricks would be lethal for this defense, especially somebody with Jones' size. Jones possesses more than just height, he also has tremendous length, which Chip Kelly covets.

Other than passing the eye test, the Florida State LB is a great athlete who's comfortable in coverage. While ILB isn't the Eagles biggest need, Jones may just be the best player on the board when the Eagles pick.

2. OLB Ronald Powell (6-3, 235lbs)

There is a lot of buzz surrounding pass-rushers Anthony Barr and Khalil Mack heading into the draft. Even Dee Ford and Jeremiah Attaochu opened eyes after impressive Senior Bowl performances. But if the Eagles take a safety, corner, or even inside linebacker in round one, Powell is a pass-rusher with tremendous upside to keep an eye on.

Here's why it makes sense: Philly is likely strapped to Trent Cole and Brandon Graham for one more year unless they find a trade partner. Ronald Powell was a five-star recruit out of high school and was an ascending star at Florida before an injury.

When healthy, Powell is a proven pass-rusher off the edge. If the torn ACL from 2012 is 100% healthy now, the Florida rusher could be one of the best pass-rushers out of the 2014 class. The Eagles could take him in the middle rounds, which limits the risk involved.

Powell isn't the most talked about OLB, but
he could be one of the best in the draft.

3. S Vinnie Sunseri (6-1, 200lbs)

Sunseri makes sense because of upside. He shockingly entered the draft after only playing seven games in 2013. He tore his ACL in October, and will likely not be ready for training camp.

As unattractive as that sounds, Sunseri was a proven play-maker on a stout defense. The injury concerns will drastically drop his stock, which means 6th-7th round potentially. Late-round players typically have trouble even making the roster, so grabbing a talent like Sunseri could pay dividends down the road.

4. OT Wesley Johnson (6-5, 290lbs)

Would drafting an offensive tackle excite the fan base? No. But Jason Peters is aging, and Johnson fits what Chip Kelly does.

As a mid-late round pick, Johnson is a highly athletic tackle who moves with ease to the second level. He's also a bright player intellectually, and handles stunts very well. Johnson needs bulk, but he won't need to play right away. The talent and skill-set are there.

5. RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas (5-9, 170lbs)

He's tiny, but he makes plays. Thomas has elite versatility and play-making ability. Chip Kelly knows him very well, and that means something.

Thomas would thrill the fan base, and the fact that he came out early, only drops his stock, which actually helps the Eagles.

There are durability concerns with the small frame, but he wouldn't be an every-down player. He would add dynamic return ability and move all over the field.

6. DE Stephon Tuitt (6-6, 312lbs)

Tuitt has as much upside as anybody in this draft. After a dominant sophomore campaign, he was inconsistent in 2013.

He's tremendously athletic for his size, providing quickness out of a powerful frame. He would be an absolute force as a 3-4 DE in Philly. Throw him in with Fletcher Cox, Connor Barwin, and a speed-rushing OLB, and you have a rush to salivate over.

He can be inconsistent, but he can dominate a game. Tuitt racked up 21.5 sacks in three years for Notre Dame.

Tuitt's size and athleticism are unmatched.

7. CB Lamarcus Joyner (5-8, 190lbs)

He's not big, and Chip Kelly likes big corners. But Joyner plays as big as any corner in college. As a corner, I don't think he's high on the Eagles' board. As a safety prospect (which he's shown to be capable of), I think he's intriguing.

The blitzing ability, big-hits, and knack for the big play make his size irrelevant. Joyner has started 27 games at safety and can be moved anywhere on the field. To move him down on the board just based off size, would be a big mistake.

8. DE Dominique Easley (6-2, 298lbs)

He's not of ideal size, but he has ideal quickness. Injury history and size concerns will drop his stock, but the upside is there. When healthy, he's a proven force on defense, making plays against the pass and run. Without argument, he's one of the best linemen in the SEC when on the field.

He's suffered two season-ending knee injuries in college, but if the medical staff gives Easley a clean bill of health, his presence in the NFL will be felt.

9. WR Kelvin Benjamin (6-5, 235lbs)

While I think Marquise Lee and maybe even Brandin Cooks are better players right now, this post is all about intriguing players, and how could you not be intrigued by Benjamin?

Eagles fans have been clamoring for a big receiver for years, and Benjamin has as big of a wingspan as anybody in the NFL. Nick Foles has shown confidence throwing the jump-ball up for his receiver, and Benjamin is a guy who could turn a lot of those balls into touchdowns.

He's far from a finished product, but if he develops, he could be terrorizing defensive backs for years to come.

Benjamin is a huge target that would add
an exciting element to Kelly's offense.

10. S Ed Reynolds (6-2, 206lbs)

Chip Kelly knows the Stanford safety very well. Reynolds has great size and length with a great football understanding.

Reynolds has shown ability to cover tight ends one-on-one and provide deep help. He's also a great presence in the run. Reynolds seems to be everything Kelly looks for in a safety.


Please tweet me feedback. If you think my selections were great, let's talk about it. If you think I'm ignorant, tell me.

This is the first look at the draft, so much will change with the combine still looming.




Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Part Two: Early Look at Free Agency

Twitter is abuzz with speculation on this player, and this player, or maybe this player potentially signing with Philadelphia. To understand what Philly's plan of attack might be, it's important to take a look at the 2013 off-season approach.

There will undoubtedly be less roster turnover this time around, which means less free agents. However, the approach will be similar.

Howie Roseman was on ESPN's NFL Insiders yesterday and said something important. He stated that the Eagles will look to free agency to fill needs, which allows the team to draft the best player available.

This approach seems sound in nature. Drafting the best player available is universally viewed as the key to building a dominant team. However, it would've been tough not to reach a little bit in the 2013 NFL Draft if Brandon Boykin and Curtis Marsh were the starting cornerbacks. So Howie and company signed Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams to solidify the position.

Solidifying the weak areas of the team makes taking the top player on the board comfortable.

While making a big splash is a sexy move, the front office chose to make many low-key signings; nagging Patrick Chung, Isaac Sopoaga, and Bradley Fletcher early in the new league year. Then signing players like Connor Barwin, Cary Williams, and Kenny Phillips a little later on. While some were very beneficial, others were clearly not.

These signings accomplished two things:

1. It allowed the Eagles to address many areas without overpaying for one player; i.e. S Dashon Goldson or TE Jared Cook.

2. While it didn't make the team necessarily great at any position, it made them stable.

I could see the team doing something very similar in 2014. Just like every year, Howie will show interest in a couple top guys, but if the price is too high, he'll quickly move on without regret.


Now let's take a look at a few positions where the Eagles may be looking to add some talent. This is only the initial look at free agency. Things will change dramatically between now and March 11th, when the new league year begins.

WIDE RECEIVER:

Top Guy: Eric Decker

Doesn't make sense for Philadelphia. Too much money.

Wishful Thinking: Dexter McCluster

Andy Reid loved McCluster going into the 2010 Draft. However, IF he manages to hit the open market, and IF the Eagles only sign one of their free agent receivers, McCluster makes a lot of sense.

He's a versatile player who can move around the field. He's a guy defensive coordinators must account for. McCluster is only 26 years old, and should demand a reasonable contract.

The more weapons on the field for Chip Kelly, the more dangerous his offense will be.

Guy(s) Who Makes Sense: Trindon Holliday/Jacoby Ford

Maclin and/or Cooper will be back in green. This takes the word "need" out of play for the wide receiver position.

Holliday and Ford both provide something valuable to the team though: explosive return game.

Damaris Johnson will not make the team, but this was the position he made a failing run at this season. I favor Holliday here, just because he's had more recent success as a returner.
An explosive returner would be a
cheap way to improve the team.
GUARD:

Top Guy: Jon Asomoah

Guard isn't a pressing need. They won't be spending big money here, just looking for young depth. So no.

Wishful Thinking: Danny Watkins

Tasteless joke.

Guy Who Makes Sense: Joe Reitz

Reitz makes sense because he's fairly young at 28, and he's very athletic. Reitz was a tight end in college, so obviously he will have good movement skills for an offensive lineman. Plus, he has tremendous size at 6-7 323lbs.

Reitz started 3 games for Indianapolis in 2013. He would add some young, athletic depth behind Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans.

DEFENSIVE END:

Top Guy: Henry Melton

Melton is the best talent among interior pass-rushers. He is coming off a major injury, and he's only played as a 4-3 defensive tackle.

However, Melton is only 27 years old and he had 13 sacks between 2012-13. He's a disruptive force.

The injury could bring his value down, but Chicago needs Melton. It would be a major shock if he ends up in Philadelphia.

Wishful Thinking: Jason Hatcher

Hatcher will likely be out of the Eagles price range, but he fits their needs. Fletcher Cox is the every down 3-4 DE, but Cedric Thorton really thrives against the run.

Hatcher's age, 31, will limit his contractual possibilities. He had 11 sacks last year, and using him on passing downs would really prolong his career.

The price will be too high, but adding a disruptive force to cave in the pocket on opposing quarterbacks is vital. Philadelphia must improve its four-man rush.

Guy Who Makes Sense: Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams is a big name. However, at 33, he's in the latter part of his career and will come fairly cheap. Pro Football Focus gave him a +7.3 rating for 2013.

I'd be surprised to see Philadelphia add a defensive end prior to the draft. But, Williams does make some sense.

He's long been known to disrupt the pocket. He'd be here on a one-year deal. With the Eagles certainly labeled as contenders for 2014, a Williams/Thorton tandem could be productive. Limited snaps would also keep the aging pass-rusher fresh.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER:

Top Guy: Brian Orakpo

If Orakpo hits the market, Howie Roseman will be interested. Now Roseman could quickly cool his interest if the asking price is outrageous. But let's face it, Orakpo makes the Eagles a much better football team.

Orakpo is experienced as an OLB, he's 28 years old, and he has great size at 6-4. He and Barwin could make a versatile, big tandem.

Orakpo had one injury-plagued season in 2013, but otherwise he's averaged over nine sacks a year in the NFL. He also achieved an outstanding +24.9 rating by Pro Football Focus. He's a top-end, complete outside linebacker.

I mentioned in my previous article that Trent Cole and Brandon Graham will be tough to part ways with. But there will be interest there if things fall into place.

Wishful Thinking: Jason Worilds

The 26 year-old was very productive in Pittsburgh last season. He's a solid pass-rusher off the edge, and Worilds has good speed and burst.

The problem is that Pittsburgh would be crazy to let him walk. Worilds was a solid piece to an uncharacteristic Steelers defense in '13.

Guy Who Makes Sense: O'Brien Schofield

Schofield is my guy. He makes a ton of sense for the Eagles. Philly is likely strapped to Trent Cole and Brandon Graham for one more year. Signing a guy like Schofield and drafting a guy in the early rounds infuses this position with talent at a low cost.

There's no way to tell for sure the type of money Schofield will demand in the market, but it's likely Seattle won't be bringing him back.

Schofield is 6-3 242lbs and possesses long arms. He's a relentless rusher off the edge, and was ultra-productive in college. He was a team captain at Wisconsin, and has all the intangibles a team looks for. He hasn't gotten much playing time, but makes the most of his opportunities, obtaining a positive Pro Football Focus rating.
Schofield is that speed the Eagles
desperately need off the edge.
CORNERBACK:

Top Guy: Brent Grimes

Grimes had a tremendous year in Miami. However, his age and market value will keep the Eagles away.

Wishful Thinking: Brandon Browner

I would be shocked if the Eagles sign Brandon Browner. The cornerback position will be addressed with youthful depth, unless they part ways with Cary Williams and his big contract.

If Williams is surprisingly gone, Browner fits Kelly's size wishes. He's 6-4 222 lbs, and he can move. He won't run step-for-step with speedy NFL receivers, but his jam can suffocate them early. His 10 INTs over the last three season is impressive because he only played in 38 games.

The PED suspensions will lower his market value. Browner could be surprisingly affordable this offseason. But it's a big stretch.

Guy Who Makes Sense: Chris Cook

At 6-2 212lbs, Cook has tremendous size. He also possesses great ball skills, piling up 14 INTs in only 29 career starts. He's young, but injury-prone.

Cook is a low-risk, high-reward guy. Roc Carmichael just isn't good enough to be the first outside corner up if there were an injury.

SAFETY:

Top Guy: Jarius Byrd

When healthy, Byrd is one of the best in the biz. Byrd's 22 career INTs in five years display his great ball-skills. He has also forced 11 fumbles, and made multiple Pro-Bowls.

Buffalo will try to keep him, maybe designating the franchise tag to Byrd for the second straight year. If he hits the market, Philly will have serious competition, which will likely lead to a huge contract for the safety.

Wishful Thinking: Antoine Bethea

Bethea is rock solid. He's also very dependable, hasn't missed a single game since '08. Bethea isn't going to collect 5+ INTs every year, but he would add serious stability to a position that's been in flux since the Dawkins departure.

Despite his mileage, the safety is only 29 years old. He would allow a rookie to develop for a couple years while improving the team in the meantime.

Guy Who Makes Sense: Chris Clemons

Not THAT Chris Clemons. This Chris Clemons has been a solid member of the Miami Dolphins' tough defense over the past few years.

He's not a guy who will light up the stat sheet, but the 28 year-old veteran does provide solid production. In his three seasons as a starter, he's recorded 17 passes defensed and four interceptions. Pro Football Focus has Clemons as the fifth-rated free agent safety, ahead of players like Nate Allen, Bethea, and Malcolm Jenkins.


He should be affordable, and provide improved play.

Clemons is a good cover safety and
would immediately improve the secondary.
*One note when scouting safeties: Nate Allen had an interesting quote prior to the 2013 season. He said before Billy Davis, safeties were very involved in the run game. But under Davis, it's pass first, pass second, and run third. That's why I've been looking at cover safeties, rather than guys like TJ Ward, who's a fine player. Patrick Chung was a more box-type safety, and look how that worked out.


Like I said, this is just the early look at free agency. Much will change, but there are players out there who could make the Eagles a better football team heading into the draft. 

And like I said earlier, providing stability will lead to drafting the best players, which will in turn lead to a better overall team.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Part One: An Offseason Plan for the Eagles

The Eagles exciting 2013 season came to a close last Saturday after a heart-breaking loss to the New Orleans Saints in the Wild-Card round of the playoffs.

Despite the disappointment stemming from that performance, winning the NFC East a year after plummeting to a 4-12 record is something to build off of. Especially under a new head coach that many people doubted, just ask Heath Evans, Skip Bayless or Phil Simms, to name a few.

There was a lot of turnover with the roster last offseason, which was to be expected with a transitioning defense and a new coaching staff. However, there are still some holes on this team that need to be addressed.

I'm going to delve into some specifics and come up with my plan to improve the roster heading into the 2014 season, which does feature a tough schedule on paper.

First, let's just start with a look at the current roster. There are many players who just haven't worked out, or are just flat out overpaid for the value they provide. One thing to note, Howie Roseman can't just cut whoever he wants, because cutting players can result in cap penalties known as dead money. Essentially it's money that counts against next year's cap even after the player is released.

Here's my list of players who are overpaid for their value:

WR Jason Avant (447 yards, 2 TDs):

Avant is a leader, he's tough, relilable, and he's a great blocker. However, he's going to be 31 years old next season and will account for $3.96M against the cap. With more productive wide receivers Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper becoming free agents, the Eagles could use that money to help sign those two.

Plus, cutting Avant would only result in $710K against the cap in dead money. That's a net savings of $3.25M. With the pass game featuring a potential cluster of DeSean Jackson, Cooper, Maclin, Celek, Ertz and McCoy, is Avant still worth that money? Plus, Chip and Howie could target a young WR in the draft, potentially a De'Anthony Thomas or Josh Huff from Oregon in the middle rounds.

TE James Casey (31 yards, 0 TDs):

James Casey was given a big contract by Philadelphia early in free agency, but was virtually useless other than blocking. He's slated to make $3.985M next season, and would account for $1M in dead money if cut, net savings of $2.985M.

The TE position is slated to earn over $9M as a group next season. It makes a lot of sense to cut that down. Howie can find a blocking TE in free agency for essentially nothing. The position would seemingly not miss a beat with Celek and Ertz manning it in 2014. I think Casey is gone.

OLB Trent Cole (56 tackles, 8.0 sacks):

Trent Cole was a professional all season long. He gave 100% on every snap and didn't complain about switching to a new position. However, the Eagles just need more speed off the edge. Overall, their four-man pass-rush was virtually non-existent.

There is a major problem, though. Cole counts for $6.6M against the cap, which is too high for his effectiveness as an OLB. But cutting Cole would result in $4.8M in dead money, which I don't see Roseman being comfortable with.

With Cole turning 32 in October, I don't imagine many teams are licking their chops to make a trade. I could see the Eagles making a trade similar to the one they made with Atlanta in 2012 for Asante Samuel: trade Cole for a late-round pick just to shed the salary.
Cole signed an extension in 2012.

OLB Brandon Graham (19 tackles, 3.0 sacks):

Brandon Graham has been lackluster since the Eagles drafted him infamously ahead of safety Earl Thomas in the 2010 NFL Draft. He's slated to count for $3.315M against the cap. Too much for a guy who made 19 tackles in a 16-game season.

The bad news? Cutting Graham would account for $3.415M against the cap, the Eagles would lose money by cutting ties with the former first-rounder. The good news? Graham is only 25 years old and has been fairly productive as a 4-3 defensive end. I could see a team willing to part with a late 5th or 6th-round pick to snatch the pass-rusher. I think it would be good for both sides to move on.

CB Cary Williams (67 tackles, 3 INTs):

Cary Williams isn't going anywhere most likely. But he is overpaid. Williams will take up over $6M in cap next year. Cutting him would result in over $3M in cap penalties. He's a solid tackler, and he makes the occasional play, but I think Bradley Fletcher is far more consistent, and far cheaper. Plus, I think Billy Davis should work with Brandon Boykin this offseason to develop him into an outside corner.

Cutting ties with Williams via trade could free up major cap space to re-allocate to maybe safety, and allow Boykin to become a full-time starter. Getting the best 11 players on the field is essential and Boykin can handle it. This is all speculation though, just giving options.

S Patrick Chung (59 tackles, 0 INTs):

5th-round rookie Earl Wolff performed far better than Patrick Chung this season. Chung was the clear liability in the secondary. Slated to take up $3.25M of the cap, he's as good as gone. Cutting him would result in $1M in cap penalties, but the surprisingly-dependable Nate Allen is a free agent, and using Chung's savings on re-signing him would be wise.

K Alex Henery (1 gigantic miss in the playoffs, terrible touchback percentage):

Leave. Just leave and never come back.


Before anybody sends me hateful messages, I'm just stating players in which I find overpaid. I'm also just giving options on how to better use that money. In no way am I saying every one of these players should be cut.

Now let's look at another money saving option. Here's a short list of players who could be asked to take a pay cut. Any of the above players could fit into this list as well, except for Henery of course, who would make for a low-end college kicker.

RG Todd Herremans

Herremans is a solid piece to a very good offensive line. However, he is aging, and his pass blocking isn't what it used to be. According to Pro Football Focus, Herremans allowed 35 QB hurries this season, second in the NFL. He's set to earn $4.2M against the cap, I'm thinking somewhere around $3-3.5M is more fair for his duties.

ILB DeMeco Ryans (127 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 2 INTs):

DeMeco Ryans is a leader, and he's a solid as they come in terms of performance. He will be 29 years old when the season starts, and his pass coverage can be shaky at times. He's expected to account for $6.8M against the cap next year. His value is tremendous to the team, but a number between $5.5-6.0M seems more reasonable.
Ryans is essential to this defense.

Herremans and Ryans are players I expect to play well for the Eagles in 2014. I'm just exhausting every money saving option I can. The more money available, the more flexibility Howie Roseman and company will have to improve the entire team.

Now let's take a look at Philadelphia's own free agents, and which ones should be back in midnight green.

WR Jeremy Maclin (857 yards, 7 TDs in 2012):


Maclin seems to fit everything Chip Kelly looks for in a receiver; he's explosive, he's fast, he has decent size, he can block. In my own opinion, the biggest value he has is on opposing defensive coordinators.

Riley Cooper was very productive this year, but Maclin is more explosive and more similar to DeSean Jackson. This would open up Jackson's opportunities and make him even more of a threat. Plus, Chip could move Maclin around in a similar way to Jackson because of their skill sets.

Maclin is coming off a major injury, but he's ahead of schedule, and they wouldn't have to guarantee much money in the deal. This is the most important early signing.
Maclin would improve a Kelly's offense.
WR Riley Cooper (835 yards, 8 TDs):

The production doesn't lie. Nick Foles and Cooper have some kind of connection. A WR trio of Jackson, Maclin, AND Cooper would be as good as there is in the game.

I honestly believe Cooper's racial slur this offseason will lower his asking price. Think about it, his teammates have welcomed him back just fine in Philly. But will another team want to bring Cooper in, then quickly put out any potential fires in the locker room?

Roseman has a unique call here at receiver. Bring back one, both, or neither? I hope for both, but we will find out soon enough.

S Nate Allen (82 tackles, 1 INT):

After a terrible start to the season, Allen really figured things out and played solid football. He wouldn't be too expensive, and he knows Billy Davis' defense. He deserves another year in Philadelphia.

S Colt Anderson:

Colt is cheap and he's a special teams ace. With the emphasis Chip puts on special teams, it seems like a good fit.

DE Cedric Thorton (60 tackles, 1.0 sack):

Ced is a restricted free agent. He'll be back. He's got solid size, and he's one of the best run-stuffers in football.


That's it for Part One. Part Two will take a look at free agents, and Part Three will take a look at early draft options that make sense.